最初の部分のみ訳文付き
     第7号 2005.1.7発行

By Stephen M. Harner

Topic: Visit to Chongqing, Chengdu, and Wuhan

重慶、成都、武漢訪問記

  Profile>>

The writer recently made trips to Dalian, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Chongqing, Chengdu, and Wuhan. The purpose was to evaluate these cities as potential locations for conducting foreign banking business. My focus was on overall economic growth and sector development, and foreign investment and trade.

 筆者は最近、大連、青島、広州、南京、重慶、成都、武漢の各都市を訪問した。目的はこれらの都市の外国銀行による業務の可能性を評価するためであった。私の関心は地方経済全体の発展と各セクターの状況、そして外国投資と貿易の現況である。

I was looking for differences among the cities, particularly relative gaps in development and differential industrial structures and development strategies. Of course, the most fundamental difference among the locations was the relative income gaps between the richer coastal cities, Dalian, Qingdao, and Guangzhou, and the poorer interior cities, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Chongqing. But my deepest impression was of the relatively unclear strategies and investment environments offered by Wuhan and Chengdu, compared with Chongqing.

 私は各都市の発展段階と工業構造、そして発展戦略の格差に着目した。もちろん最も根本的な格差は沿海地域大連、青島、広州と貧しい内陸地区武漢、成都、重慶との所得格差であることはいうまでもないが、私が最も深く印象づけられたのは、重慶と比較して武漢と成都の戦略と投資環境が不明朗なことであった。

 

Chengdu Falling Behind Chongqing.  Wuhan Struggling.

 

 

GDP Comparison

 

In terms of GDP, the study revealed a rough grouping of the cities into Three Tiers:  In Tier One, Guangzhou stands alone. In Tier Two are Chongqing and Hangzhou.  The remaining cities occupy Tier Three.

 

As is clear from the graph below, for overall economic power−GDPas well as growth momentum, Guangzhou is the leader of the field.  Guangzhou's 2003 GDP of  Rmb 347 billion (US$42 billion) is roughly 50% higher than that of the second largest Chongqing (Rmb 225 billion), and twice that of most of the other locations. 

 

 

Source: Official city reports


FDI Comparison

 

In terms of overall FDI, the candidate cities divide into Four Tiers. 

 

As with GDP, Guangzhou stands alone in Tier One, with cumulative FDI of roughly US$29 billion in realized (already paid in) FDI.   Both massive cumulative realized and prospective FDI (please see below for some projects), clearly continue to distinguish Guangzhou.  Different from much of the 1980s and 1990s, much of new FDI (and domestic investment) in Guangzhou is coming in big industrial projects and infrastructure.  

 

Tier Two FDI cities are Dalian and Qingdao, with cumulative realized FDI of roughly US$19 billion and US$16 billion, respectively.   In Tier Two Dalian is clearly the leader over Qingdao, and is likely to continue as such, and to increase its lead, in the future.  Dalian has proven a congenial location for a variety of investors, particularly the Japanese majors, and is diversifying sources of FDI.

 

The three cities that were selected largely for ”reference” in this study−Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Ningbointerestingly fall into a clear Third Tier in terms of FDI.  In the group, the leader is the more industrialized provincial capital, Nanjing, followed by the port city and petroleum refining base of Ningbo, and the light industrial and service center, Hangzhou.

 

The Fourth and lowest FDI Tier is occupied by the interior cities, Wuhan, Chongqing, and Chengdu.  Among the group, Wuhan and Chongqing are in rough equivalence at about US$3.5 billion of realized FDI.  Chengdu is greatly the laggard at US$1.3 billion.  The writer's view is that among these cities, Chongqing has the FDI momentum (powered by a clear industrial development strategysee below) and will substantially outpace Wuhan and Chengdu in the future.   Chengdu, lacking a strategy and many objective requirements, is likely to fall further behind its peers.

 

 

Source: Official city reports

 

 

Foreign Trade Comparison

 

Graph 4 provides data for foreign trade (import/export) volumes and growth rates in 2003. 

 

As with GDP (and for many of the same reasons) we observe that, in terms of foreign trade, the cities essentially inhabit Three Tiers.

 

Tier One is the occupied exclusively by Guangzhou, whose 2003 trade totaled a massive US$ 35 billion.  Tier Two is shared by all the coastal cities and Nanjing, whose foreign trade totals range from US$15 billion (Nanjing) to US$19 billion (Ningbo).  The three interior cities, Wuhan, Chongqing, and Chengdu, fall into a distinctly laggard Third Tier, with trade levels of US$3 billion.  The foreign trade volume of the Third Tier cities is less than 10% of the volume of Guangzhou and roughly 1/5 to 1/6 the volume of the Tier Two cities.

 

Graph 4 also provides YoY growth rates.  2003 was a spectacular year for trade growth throughout China.  The highest rate was achieved by Ningbo, based on large increases in both exports and raw materials imports.  Dalian's 20% increase, though relatively low, is still  respectable. Guangzhou's 25% increase against its large base is evidence of the momentum of that economy.  The 45% increase for Chongqing suggests that its economy is quickly becoming more trade oriented, and contrasted favorably with the 21% rate of Chengdu.


Source: City DOFTECs


Figures for individual cities are provided in Table 1.


Table 1.  Trade Data for Candidate Cities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US$ billions   2003

 

Jan - Oct 2004

 

Ex/Imp

Exports

Imports

YoY growth (Ex/Imp %)

Ex/Imp

Exports

Imports

YoY growth (Ex/Imp %)

Guangzhou

35.0

18.0

17.0

25.1

36.0

17.2

18.9

26.7

Dalian

16.0

8.3

7.7

19.6

16.3

8.3

8.0

17.6

Qingdao

18.0

10.4

7.6

26.4

21.8

12.6

9.2

31.1

Wuhan

3.1

1.5

1.6

42.3

3.3

1.5

1.9

28.7

Chongqing

2.6

1.6

1.0

44.6

2.9

 

 

56.8

Chengdu

2.5

1.4

1.2

21.2

2.6

1.4

1.2

32.5

Nanjing

14.7

7.7

7.0

46.0

16.9

8.4

8.5

43.6

Hangzhou

18.2

11.0

7.3

39.2

19.8

12.0

7.8

32.6

Ningbo

19.0

12.1

6.9

53.3

20.9

13.4

7.5

37.5

National

851

438.4

412.6

37.1

926.5

468.7

457.8

35.8

 

    Source:  City DOFTECs, Ministry of Commerce

 

 

Conclusion

                       

Getting information on the economies of China's larger cities is easy.   Cities officials in the local DOFTECs (市对外经济贸易合作局) are usually well prepared with statistics and presentations to encourage foreigner to trade with and invest in the city.  Of course, each city claims that it is the most attractive investment location in China.

 

But of course this is not true.  There are clearly big differences in the investment environments and trade opportunities among Chinese cities. 

 

For the writer, comparing Wuhan, Chengdu, and Chongqing, it is Chongqing that comes out ahead.  Since becoming a province-level administrative unit in the mid-1990s, Chongqing has made massive investments in infrastructure, including bridges, roads, and rail and air transport facilities.  More importantly, policies have encouraged the development of private companies, particularly in the key motorcycle and automotive industries.  Foreign investors have increasingly chosen Chongqing as the key manufacturing base in western China.

 

Compared with Chongqing, both Chengdu and Wuhan have, in my opinion, fallen behind.  Neither has a very clear or compelling development (industry) strategy.   Chengdu claims that they will focus on IT industries and new materials.  Wuhan hopes to compete more successfully in the automotive sector, as well as IT and telecommunications.   Few foreign firms, except for retailers like Walmart, are now interested in investing in Chengdu.   One wonders about the wisdom of Toyota's small investment in a minivan assembly plant.  Wuhan, now the base of the Dong Feng automotive group, has received investments by the French PSA Group, as well as Nissan and Honda.  But both Honda and Nissan are choosing Guangzhou for their largest plants, and are actually seeing to move the Dong Feng JVs to Guangzhou.

 

Thus, if it comes to an investment decision between Chongqing, Chengdu, and Wuhan, I am generally inclined to look at Chongqing first.  Of course, when it comes to investing in China in general, the record shows that the greatest momentum and successful track record, is with the cities on China's coast.




The author is president of S.M. Harner and Company, a financial services consultancy, and a ten year resident of Shanghai.




     


back number >>

第06号 2004.11.29

悪路をスタートした中国の自動車ローン自動車ローンの8割が不良債権化している
第05号 2004.10.21 浦東高層ビル物語----陸家嘴地区にようやく曙光が見えた
第04号 2004.09.21

中国銀行業監督管理委員会(劉明康主席)報告から読む中国の金融改革の新しい戦略
第03号 2004.09.03 上海で真の国有企業改革が始まる、日本資本の導入を目指す
第02号 2004.06.20 上海不動産市場 − A Visit to the "2004 中国上海房交会”
第01号 2004.05.15 Shanghai’s New “Open” Government: www.shanghai.gov.cn